Exclusive Report: Emerging Foreclosure Trends for 2012

January 11, 2012

There was an abundance of good news on the foreclosure front in 2011 that might portend a rosy outlook for 2012 — at least at first blush.

U.S. foreclosure activity was down on an annual basis in every month during the year through November, according to RealtyTrac’s monthly foreclosure market reports. These annual decreases put the nation on pace to have fewer than 2 million properties with foreclosure filings for the year, down more than 30 percent from the nearly 2.9 million properties with foreclosure filings in 2010.

Foreclosure activity in 2011 is on track to be down more than 50 percent in several states, including New JerseyMaryland and Florida.

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Alberta and Saskatchewan to lead 2012 economic growth

January 6, 2012

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have the best economic growth over the next two years of all the provinces, according to a forecast out today.

Jacques Marcil, a senior economist with TD Economics, said the economic futures of Canadian provinces this year may largely depend on their connections to Europe and exposure to the strong possibility of a European recession.

Specifically, the report adjusts a September forecast to show slower growth this year in Ontario, Quebec and B.C., while also adjusting for faster growth in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia.

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CIBC – Canadian Home Over-Valued by 15%

January 6, 2012

CIBC’s top economist is suggesting Canadian home prices may be as much as 15% overvalued and not just the 10% suggested by his counterpart at that other bank.

Still, even that larger discrepancy between fair market values and selling prices won’t necessarily translate into a correction on the same scale, CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld told a gathering of  Toronto business men and women Thursday. “We’ve largely lent to those who have the income and ability to pay,” he said.”The catalyst for a correction just isn’t there.”  Still, he’s among the first to suggest that the price gains Canadian real estate made last year have now pushed them up by as much as 10% per cent over their true value.

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US CMB – Fitch downgrades Chase CMBS

January 6, 2012

Fitch Ratings further downgraded 14 classes of JPMorgan Chase commercial mortgage-backed securities as more losses developed on specially serviced loans and payment performance declined on other loans.

Analysts expect several funds will be depleted by losses on specially serviced loans, while others will definitely feel an impact.  The loan pool’s aggregate principal balance is down 7.2% to $4.53 billion from $4.88 billion at issuance. There are cumulative interest shortfalls of $11.9 million impacting several classes of CMBS.  Most of the CMBS were already rated below investment grade.

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Real Estate Stock Picks 2012 – by MorningStar

January 6, 2012

The intrasector flight to more defensive names tempered in the fourth quarter. Other than lodging, recent macro-volatility doesn’t suggest high potential for materially sharp reversals in firming near-term operating metrics. Relative to private investors, and the public non-traded REIT space, publicly traded REITs remain well-positioned.

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US – Single Family Price 19 out of 20 Cities Saw Decline

January 6, 2012

Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller[1] Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month.

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