Which Way is the Canadian Economy Going?

April 13, 2009

OTTAWA – the latest but not the only recent evidence of diametrically opposed indicators about where the Canadian, U.S. and European economies are headed.

The net loss of 61,300 jobs in March – 79,500 in the full-time category offset partly by a pick-up in part-time work – is a massive number for Canada. The rise in the jobless rate to eight per cent points to an economy firmly in the grip of an historic recession that could, when all is said and done, be deeper and last longer than any seen since the Big One of the 1930s.

It could also indicate that perhaps we are at the early stage of the next Big One.

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US – Most Housing Indexes Overstated Downturn

April 7, 2009

Some key markets in those indexes are dominated by distressed foreclosure sales, exaggerating the price weakness that is often extrapolated to the national market, the co-founders of Collateral Intelligence said on a conference call conducted by UBS.

Closely watched indexes cited by the firm’s co-founders, Michael Sklarz and Norm Miller, included those provided by Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller, U.S. regulator the Federal Housing Finance Agency — formerly the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) — and the National Association of Realtors.

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