Exclusive Report: Emerging Foreclosure Trends for 2012

There was an abundance of good news on the foreclosure front in 2011 that might portend a rosy outlook for 2012 — at least at first blush.

U.S. foreclosure activity was down on an annual basis in every month during the year through November, according to RealtyTrac’s monthly foreclosure market reports. These annual decreases put the nation on pace to have fewer than 2 million properties with foreclosure filings for the year, down more than 30 percent from the nearly 2.9 million properties with foreclosure filings in 2010.

Foreclosure activity in 2011 is on track to be down more than 50 percent in several states, including New Jersey, Maryland and Florida.

Alberta and Saskatchewan to lead 2012 economic growth

Saskatchewan and Alberta will have the best economic growth over the next two years of all the provinces, according to a forecast out today.

Jacques Marcil, a senior economist with TD Economics, said the economic futures of Canadian provinces this year may largely depend on their connections to Europe and exposure to the strong possibility of a European recession.

Specifically, the report adjusts a September forecast to show slower growth this year in Ontario, Quebec and B.C., while also adjusting for faster growth in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia.

CIBC – Canadian Home Over-Valued by 15%

CIBC’s top economist is suggesting Canadian home prices may be as much as 15% overvalued and not just the 10% suggested by his counterpart at that other bank.

Still, even that larger discrepancy between fair market values and selling prices won’t necessarily translate into a correction on the same scale, CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld told a gathering of  Toronto business men and women Thursday. ”We’ve largely lent to those who have the income and ability to pay,” he said.”The catalyst for a correction just isn’t there.”  Still, he’s among the first to suggest that the price gains Canadian real estate made last year have now pushed them up by as much as 10% per cent over their true value.

US CMB – Fitch downgrades Chase CMBS

Fitch Ratings further downgraded 14 classes of JPMorgan Chase commercial mortgage-backed securities as more losses developed on specially serviced loans and payment performance declined on other loans.

Analysts expect several funds will be depleted by losses on specially serviced loans, while others will definitely feel an impact.  The loan pool’s aggregate principal balance is down 7.2% to $4.53 billion from $4.88 billion at issuance. There are cumulative interest shortfalls of $11.9 million impacting several classes of CMBS.  Most of the CMBS were already rated below investment grade.

Real Estate Stock Picks 2012 – by MorningStar

The intrasector flight to more defensive names tempered in the fourth quarter. Other than lodging, recent macro-volatility doesn’t suggest high potential for materially sharp reversals in firming near-term operating metrics. Relative to private investors, and the public non-traded REIT space, publicly traded REITs remain well-positioned.

US – Single Family Price 19 out of 20 Cities Saw Decline

Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller[1] Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month.

US – NAR expects some commercial real estate growth next year

The commercial real estate segment could experience some growth in 2012, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

“Vacancy rates are flat, leasing is soft and concessions continue to make it a tenant’s market. However, with modest economic growth and job creation, the fundamentals for commercial real estate should gradually improve in the coming year.”

US – Single Family 3Q home prices remain weak: Case Shiller

The third quarter brought another dose of persistently disappointing home prices, with the U.S. national home price index up only 0.1% from the second quarter and down 3.9% from year-ago figures, the S&P Case-Shiller report.

The national index decline is not as steep as the 5.8% decline posted in the second quarter, but home prices overall are back to first quarter of 2003 levels.

US – Home refinancing and multifamily demand on the rise

Overall bank lending increased slightly since the previous report, and home refinancing grew at a more rapid pace while residential real estate remained sluggish.

New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Kansas City reported increased loan demand. Several districts reported an increase in home refinancing activity. Boston noted plentiful financing and favorable terms for premier properties, while financing remained harder to obtain for riskier properties and for those in secondary and tertiary markets.

Atlanta saw soft loan demand as companies continued to reduce their debt loads and limit expansion and capital improvement plans.  Residential real estate activity remained sluggish, according to the report. Single-family home construction was weak and commercial construction was slow.

Dallas was a bright spot on the housing front with continued improvement in the district.

“Inventories of existing homes fell further since the last report, and new home inventories remained lean,” the Dallas district reported. “Single-family home sales are better, according to contacts, but economic uncertainty is keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Apartment demand rose even more since the last report, and contacts are very positive in their outlooks. Some respondents noted increased sales of apartment complexes to investors.”

Multifamily construction picked up in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago and Minneapolis. San Francisco remained “anemic,” while St. Louis and Kansas City reported decreased activity.  In the Atlanta district, which includes Florida, condo activity was expected to rise.

“Contacts in South Florida signaled that condominium development was expected to get under way soon because of strong demand from foreign investors, many of whom pay with cash,” the report said. “Developers plan to cover costs by requiring a significant upfront payment from the purchasers before construction begins.”

The survey was based on information collected on or before Nov. 18.

 

Source: Housing Wire

US – Average Time to Foreclose Sets New Record 631 Days

Mortgage delinquencies continued their decline in October and are nearly 30% off their January 2010 peak, but foreclosure inventories and the foreclosure process reached all-time highs during the month, according to Lender Processing Services.

Foreclosure inventories reached 4.29% of all active mortgages, an all-time high, while the average days delinquent for loans in foreclosure extended as well, setting a new record of 631 days since last payment.